NEWS: Trevor Blair | Return to sender – Jamaica’s nuclear energy gamble

Published: Sunday | January 19, 2025 | 12:11 AM

Contributed to Jamaica Gleaner

Author: Trevor Blair

In a move that has left many energy experts scratching their heads, the Jamaican government has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with two Canadian entities, Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) and Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL).

Despite their impressive names, both of these organizations boast an empty portfolio when it comes to operational Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and seem to be pitching Jamaica as the guinea pig for their nuclear aspirations. Talk about misplaced priorities!

Credit: Jamaica Gleaner Contributed

SHINY, MODERN AND RISKY

SMRs, we’re told, are the future of nuclear energy. They are compact, efficient, and safe – on paper. There’s one tiny problem, however: they’re still largely theoretical. The Canadian firms in question have not built or operated even a single SMR. Jamaica, with its limited expertise in nuclear technology, is essentially being invited to roll the dice on a high-stakes experiment.

This is not a case of innovation meeting opportunity; it is irresponsibility cloaked in technological optimism. When the companies themselves lack a track record, one has to wonder: is Jamaica being sold a vision, or simply buying into a mirage?

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

For those who may have forgotten geography, Jamaica sits squarely in the hurricane belt, and hurricanes are becoming more frequent, typically stronger and more devastating. Add to this a penchant for seismic activity in the infamous Haitian-Jamaican strike slip fault zone known as the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault, and you have a recipe for potential nuclear calamity. The proponents of SMRs argue that modern designs are resilient against such events. However, resilience in theory does not necessarily equate to resilience in practice - especially when the practice involves a nation whose disaster response infrastructure is already stretched thin.

Imagine, for a moment, the aftermath of a Category 4 hurricane. Power lines are down, roads are impassable, and emergency services are overwhelmed. Now picture this same scenario, but with the added complication of a nuclear facility needing immediate attention. If that doesn’t send chills down your spine, it’s likely because you are not paying attention.

One of the less glamorous aspects of nuclear energy is waste management. SMRs might produce less waste than their larger counterparts, but “less” is not the same as “none.” Radioactive waste requires secure storage for hundreds or even thousands, of years. Where in Jamaica, a small island without suitable geological formations for such storage, is this waste supposed to go?

Exporting the waste is often touted as a solution. However, this approach ties Jamaica into long-term dependencies and liabilities with foreign nations. What happens when political dynamics shift or international treaties change? Jamaica could find itself saddled with problems it never anticipated, all for the dubious honour of hosting an experimental nuclear project.

RENEWABLE PATH

Here’s a radical idea: what if Jamaica focused on energy solutions that align with its strengths rather than amplifying its vulnerabilities? Solar, wind, farmed biomass, and hydro & wave power are not just sustainable; they are abundantly available in Jamaica. The sun shines generously, the wind blows steadily in certain regions, waves and tides ebb and flow, and the island’s topography provides ample opportunities for farmed biomass and hydroelectric projects.

These renewable energy sources are safer, more adaptable to Jamaica’s geography, and crucially, don’t come with the existential risks associated with nuclear power. Distributed renewable systems also enhance resilience by decentralizing power generation. When a hurricane strikes, for example, damage to a single wind turbine or solar farm doesn’t cripple the entire energy supply chain.

ECONOMICS OF MISADVENTURE

Let’s not forget the financial side of this nuclear proposal. Building an SMR is no small feat; the upfront costs are staggering. The estimated capital cost for SMRs is in the range of US$4,000 to $6,000 per installed kW of capacity, depending on the design and location. By comparison, the Capital Cost of Solar PV is around US$1,000 to $2,500 per installed kW.

What is even more concerning, is that the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for SMRs is typically between US$60 to $120 per MWh, while the LCOE for Solar PV is around US$20 to $60 per MWh, and has been steadily declining - a trend which seems set to continue.

While the Canadian firms might promise financing or public-private partnerships, these arrangements often come with strings attached. Translation? Jamaicans could end up footing the bill through increased taxes or greatly inflated electricity prices.

Renewable energy, on the other hand, allows for incremental investments. Solar panels can be installed on homes and businesses, creating distributed generation that reduces the need for massive, centralized infrastructure projects. Moreover, renewable projects can engage local communities, generating jobs and fostering economic development in ways that nuclear projects simply cannot. For example, a power plant producing electricity by the pyrolysis of locally grown Elephant Grass could provide hundreds of jobs in the planting, harvesting, and delivery of raw material, with the added benefit of producing environmentally friendly charcoal as waste from the process - saving hundreds of tons of our endangered hardwood trees.

ARE CANADIAN SERIOUS?

A key question that needs asking is this: are CNL and AECL legitimate players in the nuclear industry, or are they opportunists eyeing Jamaica as a convenient stepping stone? Their lack of operational SMRs does not inspire confidence, neither does their apparent willingness to pitch high-risk technology to a small island nation with no prior nuclear experience. It’s hard not to see this as a classic case of overselling and under-delivering.

Why was this MoU signed without robust public consultation or parliamentary debate? The lack of transparency is troubling, especially for a decision with such far-reaching implications. Nuclear energy is not just another line item in an energy policy; it is a transformational commitment with potential consequences for generations. The Jamaican public deserves to have a say in whether they want their country to take on such a gamble.

Jamaica’s energy future should be one of sustainability, safety, and sovereignty. Nuclear energy - particularly in the form of unproven SMRs – fails on all three counts. It is expensive, risky, and wholly unsuited to Jamaica’s unique circumstances. The MoU with the Canadian firms is a gamble that Jamaica can ill afford to take.

It is not too late to reverse course. Send this nuclear ambition back to its sender and refocus on renewable energy solutions that truly align with Jamaica’s needs and potential. To the citizens of Jamaica: demand accountability, transparency, and common sense in energy policy-making. And to the Canadian companies: your pitch might find a more suitable audience elsewhere. Jamaica, however, is not the place.

Trevor Blair is physicist, computer and management consultant, and serial entrepreneur. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.

by Trevor Blair

January 2025